I took photos this morning, but they were blury. Not very good. I was only able to read 42 lines with confidence. But, for a quick update on the statistics, that's probably a relevant sample. Out of 109 total contestants (13% of whom I called "drops" last week), 42 lines of data is a 38% sample. That's probably good enough for an 80% confidence level.
I had full 5 week data on 27 contestants, and 4 week data on another 15.
In the 5 week data, the median is 1.9 lb/wk, and the average is 2.5 lb/wk. (remember, the magic number is 3.33 lb/wk). The distribution looks like this.
I could also look the other way. Last week, the averages and means were in the range of 2 lb/wk, now it is down at 1.8 lb/wk. But, again, my numbers this week are pretty cursory. I'd want to really prove that.
In general, I'm going to say that this data check-in still supports last week's conclusions: Last week, I predicted a 25%-40% success rate for losing 20 lb in 6 weeks. And, all things being equal, I'd still assert that prediction. But, all things are not equal in week 6!
Week 6 Changes
The coaches made some pretty serious changes to the program in the last week. We got a notice last Friday:
- They advised everyone to cut all carbs and fats for week 6, with the exception of one day (Wednesday) carb consumption of 1g/lb of body weight.
- They've also hinted that they are going to play some water weight games at the end, before the final weigh in.
- They recommended adding an hour brisk walk as a tactic.
This type of thing will certainly boost the program's success rate. Overall, cutting carbs will mean a 25% reduction in calories. But, additionally, in most of the contestants, it will induce ketosis. Putting people into ketosis, while sustaining a daily workout plan, could have some pretty big results. Back when Atkins was a craze, I remember hearing reports of people loosing 10+ lb/wk on the induction phase of the diet. I don't think it is unhealthy per se. I doubt that a week of ketosis would do anybody any harm. (Heck, everyone was doing it in the 90s.)
The Wednesday instruction is a carbohydrate cycling thing. I don't really know much about carb-cycling. So, I can't make any commentary on how well it will work. But, I can only assume it will improve results. If contestants follow the instructions, they'll put themselves into ketosis on Saturday, out of ketosis on Wednesday, then back into ketosis on Thursday.
The no-carb thing doesn't really work for me. I'd tried it in the 90s, and I get light-headed. I tried going no-carb for a few days, starting last Friday. And, I made if through the weekend. But, I my mental focus was bad, and I lost all energy to function like a human.
Jenn says all this week 6 stuff is "cheating". And, I kindof agree. From a numbers basis, if it takes a pound off the scale, it counts. The ketosis and carb-cycling will certianly do that. So, I don't consdier them "cheating". For me, I'd look at them as short-term strategies. I think she was upset that the rules changed in the last week, giving her the "I didn't sign up for this" syndrom. I do, though, think loosing water weight is quite different from loosing fat. Those types of games should be reserved for wrestlers! I signed up to loose fat.
Extra workouts, I'd say, isn't cheating. I've been doing those anyway. I'm planning to put in a 4-mile run tonight, and probably a 9-mile on Sunday.
For me, personally, I need to loose about 1 - 1.5 lb this week to make the goal. So, I'm skipping all the carb stuff and sticking to the normal program. I've been loosing over 3 lb/wk. So, I'll probably make it without making changes.
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